Ontario Energy Market Highlights - 2026-01-16
🌦️ Weather Outlook
The weather across Ontario's key regions today will be mainly cloudy, with temperatures expected to range from a chilly -11.0°C to a milder 0.0°C. These colder temperatures will likely drive up electricity demand as residents and businesses increase their heating usage. The cloud cover, however, will have a dampening effect on solar generation, which may lead to a greater reliance on other forms of generation such as gas and hydro.
⚡ Demand Forecast
Today's electricity demand will start at approximately 17609 MW and is projected to reach a peak of 20905 MW at HE9, reflecting the typical morning surge as businesses and industries commence operations. The colder weather and reduced daylight hours will likely contribute to this increased demand. Looking ahead to next week, we anticipate demand peaks could reach up to 23318 MW, influenced by similar weather patterns.
💰 Price Outlook
Day-Ahead (DAM) prices today will oscillate between $36/MWh and $105/MWh, reflecting the variability in demand and supply conditions. Pre-Dispatch (PD) prices will see a wider range, from $37/MWh to a projected high of $183/MWh at HE7. This price behavior suggests a potential tightening in supply during the evening peak, possibly due to increased demand and lower renewable output.
🔋 Generation Mix
Nuclear output will maintain a steady contribution of approximately 9496 MW throughout the day. Hydro generation will fluctuate between 3559–5076 MW, while gas generation may reach up to 6260 MW during the evening ramp to meet the anticipated demand surge. Wind generation will range from 1207–3428 MW, and due to the cloud cover, solar is expected to peak at a relatively low 60 MW around midday. Collectively, these resources will provide a balanced mix to support today's electricity demand.
🚧 Planned Outages
Planned outages today will affect approximately: Nuclear 3690 MW, Hydro 1602 MW, Gas 769 MW, and Wind 2375 MW. Although these outages are significant, they are not expected to materially affect flexibility or price volatility due to the diverse generation mix and the availability of sufficient capacity to meet demand.
✅ Summary
In conclusion, today's Ontario energy market will face some challenges due to colder temperatures and cloud cover, which are expected to increase electricity demand and limit solar generation. However, the diverse generation mix, featuring a significant contribution from nuclear, hydro, gas, and wind, should provide a robust response to these conditions. While planned outages are substantial, they are not expected to significantly disrupt the market balance or price stability. As always, we will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates as necessary.
