Ontario Energy Market Highlights - 2026-03-11
🌦️ Weather Outlook
In Ontario's key regions today, temperatures will range from a chilly -4.0°C to a mild 17.0°C, with predominant cloud cover. This weather pattern is expected to result in a moderate increase in electricity demand, particularly during the colder evening hours. The cloudy conditions may also limit solar generation output, while wind generation potential will depend on specific wind conditions.
⚡ Demand Forecast
Electricity demand will start the day at around 14192 MW, with a forecasted peak of 18107 MW at the 19th hour ending (HE19). The intraday load shape will likely follow a typical pattern, with demand increasing during the morning hours, remaining steady through the afternoon, and then peaking in the evening. The colder temperatures and reduced daylight hours will contribute to this pattern. Looking forward to next week, peaks may approach a significant 20093 MW, indicating a potential increase in demand.
💰 Price Outlook
Day-Ahead Market (DAM) prices are expected to vary between $26/MWh and $62/MWh. Meanwhile, Pre-Dispatch (PD) prices will fluctuate within a slightly narrower range of $32/MWh to $58/MWh, with a projected PD high of $58/MWh at HE5. These price behaviours suggest a relatively stable market with moderate volatility, reflecting the balance between supply and demand.
🔋 Generation Mix
Nuclear output will remain steady around 9590 MW, providing a stable base of power. Hydro generation will oscillate between 3591–4824 MW, providing a flexible source of power to meet fluctuating demand. Gas generation may increase to 3033 MW during the evening ramp to meet peak demand. Wind generation will range from 2044–3274 MW, depending on wind conditions, and solar generation is expected to peak near 80 MW around midday, limited by the cloudy conditions. Together, these resources will provide a balanced mix to meet today's electricity demand.
🚧 Planned Outages
Today's planned outages will result in approximately 3596 MW of nuclear, 1613 MW of hydro, 1291 MW of gas, and 1755 MW of wind generation being offline. These outages, while significant, are not expected to materially affect flexibility or price volatility due to the diversity and flexibility of Ontario's generation mix.
✅ Summary
Looking ahead, Ontario's energy market is set for a day of moderate demand, driven by weather conditions and limited daylight hours. The diverse generation mix, coupled with planned outages, is expected to meet this demand effectively. Prices will likely remain relatively stable with moderate volatility. As we move into next week, we may see an increase in peak demand, which will be an important factor to monitor.
