Ontario Energy Market Highlights - 2026-06-27
🌦️ Weather Outlook
Today's weather across Ontario’s key regions will be mostly sunny with temperatures ranging from a comfortable 22.0°C to a warm 29.0°C. This weather pattern is expected to result in moderate electricity demand, particularly during the peak hours of the afternoon when air conditioning use will likely increase. On the renewable generation front, the sunny conditions will provide an excellent opportunity for solar power generation, while wind power may be slightly lower due to the calm weather.
⚡ Demand Forecast
We anticipate that electricity demand will start at around 13326 MW, peaking at approximately 19250 MW at Hour Ending (HE) 19. Given the sunny weather and extended daylight hours, we expect a typical summer load shape with a sharp increase in demand during the afternoon hours. Looking ahead to next week, peak demand may approach a hefty 25717 MW, driven by warmer temperatures and increased air conditioning use.
💰 Price Outlook
Day-Ahead (DAM) prices are forecast to range between $33/MWh and $60/MWh. Pre-Dispatch (PD) prices are expected to fluctuate between $35/MWh and $107/MWh, with a projected PD high of $107/MWh at HE20. These prices reflect the anticipated increase in demand during the daytime hours, coupled with the varying availability of renewable resources throughout the day.
🔋 Generation Mix
In terms of generation mix, nuclear output will remain steady near 9462 MW. Hydro generation is expected to fluctuate between 3461–5255 MW, while gas generation could reach up to 5665 MW during the evening ramp. Wind generation will likely range from 0–460 MW, and solar output is predicted to peak near 404 MW around midday. This diverse mix of resources should provide the necessary balance to the system today, ensuring reliable power supply across the province.
🚧 Planned Outages
Planned outages for today are approximately as follows: Nuclear 2692 MW, Hydro 1162 MW, Gas 1265 MW, and Wind 4683 MW. While these outages represent a significant portion of the generation mix, we do not expect them to materially affect system flexibility or price volatility, given the diverse resource mix and the availability of imports to cover any shortfalls.
✅ Summary
In summary, today's energy market in Ontario will be characterized by moderate demand, driven by sunny weather and warm temperatures. Prices are expected to fluctuate in line with demand patterns and the availability of renewable resources. Despite planned outages across several resource types, the diverse generation mix should ensure a balanced and reliable power supply. Looking ahead, market participants should prepare for a potential surge in demand next week as temperatures rise.
