Ontario Energy Market Highlights - 2026-05-27
🌦️ Weather Outlook
Today, Ontario's key regions are projected to experience temperatures ranging from a comfortable 20.0°C to a warm 27.0°C, under primarily sunny conditions. This weather pattern is expected to drive up electricity demand as residents turn on air conditioning units to combat the heat. However, the clear skies will also boost renewable generation, particularly solar power, which may help to offset some of the increased demand.
⚡ Demand Forecast
Electricity demand will commence at approximately 13695 MW and is forecasted to reach a peak of around 18490 MW at the 17th hour ending (HE17). This intraday load shape will likely follow a bell curve pattern, with demand ramping up in the morning as businesses open and peaking in the afternoon when temperatures are highest. Looking ahead, next week's peaks may approach a significant 22949 MW, potentially due to continued warm weather.
💰 Price Outlook
Day-Ahead (DAM) prices are predicted to oscillate between $9/MWh and $72/MWh. Meanwhile, Pre-Dispatch (PD) prices will swing between $0/MWh and $37/MWh, with a projected PD high of $37/MWh at HE19. This price behaviour suggests a volatile market, potentially due to fluctuations in demand and supply caused by the weather conditions and the varying generation mix.
🔋 Generation Mix
Nuclear output is expected to remain steady near 8911 MW, providing a reliable base load. Hydro generation will fluctuate between 4763–5847 MW, providing much-needed flexibility to the system. Gas generation may reach up to 3757 MW during the evening ramp, helping to meet peak demand. Wind generation will vary from 432–1347 MW, while solar is projected to peak near 338 MW around midday due to the sunny conditions. Together, these diverse resources will help to maintain system balance throughout the day.
🚧 Planned Outages
Today, the planned outages are approximately: Nuclear 3238 MW, Hydro 1453 MW, Gas 2232 MW, and Wind 4058 MW. While these outages represent a significant portion of the generation mix, they are not expected to materially affect flexibility or price volatility due to the diverse range of generation resources available and the favourable weather conditions for renewable generation.
✅ Summary
In summary, today's energy market in Ontario is expected to be dynamic, with fluctuating demand and prices due to warm weather conditions. However, the diverse generation mix, boosted by favourable conditions for solar power, will help to maintain system balance. Despite significant planned outages, the system is well-equipped to handle this challenge. As we look ahead to next week, we anticipate further increases in demand, but with careful management and flexible response, the Ontario energy market is well-prepared to meet these challenges.
